Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Rose wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rose 50.9% vs Duchene 57.0% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.0%
Defensive zone
Rose 70.0%
Neutral zone
Rose 60.3%
Result
Jacob de la Rose favored at 60.3%
60.3%
39.7%
Rose
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Rose
Duchene
Last 5: Rose 2-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Rose
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rose
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (120)
56.5% (527)
-4.0%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.6% (185)
+38.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
59.3% (27)
-26.0%
On power play, Rose has a +38.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rose is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (68).
Rose shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Rose
Duchene
Home
46.3% (67)
57.6% (403)
Away
57.1% (63)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Rose
Duchene
P1
50.0%
61.4%
P2
54.1%
58.5%
P3
51.2%
54.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rose
48.0%▲
44.5%
51.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2016 | 3 | 15:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |