Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwartz 50.1% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 88.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 63.5%
Neutral zone
Schwartz 73.2%
Result
Jaden Schwartz favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Schwartz
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Schwartz
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Schwartz
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Schwartz
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Schwartz
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwartz
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (640)
53.6% (8,791)
-6.4%
Power Play
56.4% (342)
58.2% (2,122)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (46)
50.9% (1,138)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Schwartz is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (421).
Schwartz shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Schwartz
Pavelski
Home
51.4% (525)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
48.7% (503)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Schwartz
Pavelski
P1
48.9%
53.5%
P2
49.7%
55.2%
P3
51.5%
53.9%
OT
53.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwartz
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:08 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |