Scouting Report
Jarret Stoll holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stoll on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stoll wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stoll 56.3% vs MacKinnon 48.6% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stoll 56.2%
Defensive zone
Stoll 95.6%
Neutral zone
Stoll 84.9%
Result
Jarret Stoll favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Stoll
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stoll
MacKinnon
Last 8: Stoll 6-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Stoll
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stoll
5
0
Stoll
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stoll
1
0
Stoll
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stoll
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (650)
48.2% (849)
+9.5%
Power Play
66.7% (15)
51.0% (151)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
53.9% (178)
44.7% (47)
+9.2%
On power play, Stoll has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stoll is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Stoll shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Stoll
MacKinnon
Home
59.6% (421)
51.2% (521)
Away
54.5% (422)
45.6% (526)
By Period
Stoll
MacKinnon
P1
55.4%
49.9%
P2
55.9%
48.0%
P3
59.9%
47.9%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
60.3%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stoll
72.0%▲
62.5%
57.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2016 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 00:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2015 | 3 | 13:44 | Defensive | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 3, 2015 | 3 | 03:52 | Neutral | Jarret Stoll |
| Dec 3, 2015 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |