Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Emmerton wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Emmerton 48.7% vs Arnott 50.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 50.4%
Defensive zone
Emmerton 51.9%
Neutral zone
Emmerton 54.4%
Result
Cory Emmerton favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Emmerton
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Emmerton
Arnott
Last 6: Emmerton 1-5 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Emmerton
Arnott
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
1
Emmerton
Arnott
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
3
Emmerton
Arnott
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Emmerton
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (299)
50.5% (667)
-2.3%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
49.4% (89)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
60.0% (5)
-2.9%
On power play, Arnott has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Emmerton is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Emmerton shoots left. Arnott is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Emmerton
Arnott
Home
49.7% (183)
53.1% (431)
Away
46.2% (130)
46.7% (338)
By Period
Emmerton
Arnott
P1
45.5%
46.9%
P2
50.0%
52.9%
P3
49.4%
50.4%
Final 5 min
46.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Emmerton
56.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2011 | 3 | 13:45 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 3 | 02:16 | Offensive | Cory Emmerton |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 1 | 12:16 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 16:14 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |