Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nielsen on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nielsen wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 46.6% vs Arnott 50.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 81.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 57.8%
Neutral zone
Arnott 61.4%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Nielsen
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nielsen
Arnott
Last 8: Nielsen 5-3 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
3
Nielsen
Arnott
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
3
0
Nielsen
Arnott
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Arnott
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (766)
49.0% (777)
-2.8%
Power Play
43.4% (53)
58.1% (93)
-14.7%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (125)
30.0% (10)
+18.0%
On penalty kill, Nielsen has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Nielsen is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Nielsen shoots left. Arnott is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Arnott
Home
46.8% (489)
51.1% (460)
Away
45.6% (476)
49.3% (434)
By Period
Nielsen
Arnott
P1
45.5%
45.3%
P2
47.5%
54.2%
P3
46.5%
49.8%
OT
37.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.2%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 3 | 01:23 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |