Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.2%). Look for Santorelli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Arnott wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Santorelli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.2% vs Santorelli 50.2% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Santorelli leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Arnott 54.0%
Defensive zone
Arnott 50.4%
Neutral zone
Santorelli 56.1%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Arnott
Santorelli
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Arnott
Santorelli
Last 10: Arnott 4-6 Santorelli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Santorelli
2
4
Arnott
Santorelli
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Santorelli
1
2
Arnott
Santorelli
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Santorelli
1
2
Arnott
Santorelli
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Santorelli
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (777)
48.7% (754)
+0.3%
Power Play
58.1% (93)
57.9% (183)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
49.4% (87)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Santorelli has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Santorelli shoots right. Arnott is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Arnott shoots right. Santorelli is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (328).
Home / Away
Arnott
Santorelli
Home
51.1% (460)
50.0% (502)
Away
49.3% (434)
50.4% (530)
By Period
Arnott
Santorelli
P1
45.3%
53.4%
P2
54.2%
50.4%
P3
49.8%
46.9%
OT
66.7%
53.3%
Final 5 min
48.4%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Santorelli
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2011 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 6, 2011 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 19:43 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 19:24 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 14:22 | Defensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 02:04 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 2 | 04:44 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |