Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.3% vs Kesler 55.9% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Arnott 67.3%
Defensive zone
Kesler 64.2%
Neutral zone
Arnott 50.3%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Arnott
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
11
(21 meetings)
10
11
Arnott
Kesler
Last 10: Arnott 5-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
6
3
Arnott
Kesler
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Arnott
Kesler
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
5
Arnott
Kesler
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,444)
56.4% (8,095)
-6.7%
Power Play
53.8% (182)
60.7% (1,437)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
50.5% (1,908)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Arnott is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (488).
Arnott shoots right. Kesler is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,497).
Home / Away
Arnott
Kesler
Home
52.1% (891)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
48.2% (772)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Arnott
Kesler
P1
46.1%
56.5%
P2
53.6%
55.9%
P3
50.1%
56.1%
OT
71.4%
46.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 19:24 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 1 | 03:29 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 2 | 17:16 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 1 | 13:13 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 12:24 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 1, 2010 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |