Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.3% vs Matthias 46.6% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 59.3%
Defensive zone
Matthias 74.5%
Neutral zone
Matthias 57.6%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Arnott
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Arnott
Matthias
Last 9: Arnott 4-5 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Arnott
Matthias
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
2
1
Arnott
Matthias
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthias
0
2
Arnott
Matthias
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,444)
46.4% (1,716)
+3.3%
Power Play
53.8% (182)
56.3% (103)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
41.7% (175)
-1.7%
On even strength, Arnott has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Arnott is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,175).
Arnott shoots right. Matthias is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (727).
Home / Away
Arnott
Matthias
Home
52.1% (891)
46.9% (933)
Away
48.2% (772)
45.9% (1,069)
By Period
Arnott
Matthias
P1
46.1%
47.8%
P2
53.6%
49.4%
P3
50.1%
41.6%
OT
71.4%
45.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 10:50 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 3 | 17:43 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |