Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.8%). Look for Arnott on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.2% vs Matthias 50.6% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthias 51.5%
Defensive zone
Matthias 56.4%
Neutral zone
Matthias 53.0%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Arnott
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Arnott
Matthias
Last 7: Arnott 3-4 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Arnott
Matthias
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
2
1
Arnott
Matthias
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthias
0
2
Arnott
Matthias
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (777)
51.0% (341)
-2.0%
Power Play
58.1% (93)
52.2% (23)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
50.0% (4)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Matthias has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Arnott is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Arnott shoots right. Matthias is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Arnott
Matthias
Home
51.1% (460)
50.6% (164)
Away
49.3% (434)
51.0% (206)
By Period
Arnott
Matthias
P1
45.3%
51.1%
P2
54.2%
54.5%
P3
49.8%
45.5%
OT
66.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
48.4%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 10:50 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 3 | 17:43 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |