Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Arnott wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.2% vs Stamkos 46.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.5%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 61.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Arnott
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Arnott
Stamkos
Last 10: Arnott 2-8 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Arnott
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
Arnott
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Arnott
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (777)
46.0% (767)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.1% (93)
50.0% (126)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
46.2% (26)
-16.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Arnott is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Arnott shoots right. Stamkos is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Arnott
Stamkos
Home
51.1% (460)
49.7% (441)
Away
49.3% (434)
43.6% (486)
By Period
Arnott
Stamkos
P1
45.3%
43.7%
P2
54.2%
50.2%
P3
49.8%
45.1%
OT
66.7%
46.4%
Final 5 min
48.4%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2011 | 1 | 00:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 16:28 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 18:28 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 1 | 13:20 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 14, 2011 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2011 | 1 | 09:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |