Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sutter wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 51.9% vs Spezza 54.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 68.8%
Defensive zone
Sutter 62.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 51.4%
Result
Brandon Sutter favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Sutter
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Sutter
Spezza
Last 7: Sutter 3-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Sutter
Spezza
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Sutter
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (187)
53.2% (763)
+0.8%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
60.9% (197)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (51)
57.1% (21)
-8.1%
On power play, Spezza has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Sutter is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Sutter shoots right. Spezza is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Sutter
Spezza
Home
57.3% (164)
57.5% (518)
Away
45.6% (114)
51.8% (463)
By Period
Sutter
Spezza
P1
49.4%
55.4%
P2
52.3%
54.1%
P3
54.3%
55.5%
OT
71.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
59.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
52.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2015 | OT | 01:14 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 29, 2015 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 29, 2015 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 29, 2015 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 29, 2015 | 2 | 19:23 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 29, 2015 | 2 | 08:51 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 29, 2015 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |