Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Spezza 53.7% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 66.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 73.6%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 54.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
MacKenzie
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
MacKenzie
Spezza
Last 10: MacKenzie 3-7 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
5
MacKenzie
Spezza
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
1
MacKenzie
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
53.9% (1,097)
+1.0%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
54.8% (250)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
52.8% (89)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (215).
MacKenzie shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,020).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Spezza
Home
51.9% (237)
55.8% (695)
Away
51.2% (260)
52.2% (741)
By Period
MacKenzie
Spezza
P1
49.7%
50.3%
P2
50.6%
54.7%
P3
53.5%
56.0%
OT
100.0%
73.7%
Final 5 min
49.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2014 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 3 | 02:47 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 1 | 12:03 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |