Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.0% vs Spezza 55.8% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 71.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 75.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 69.6%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Roy
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Roy
Spezza
Last 7: Roy 1-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Roy
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Roy
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
3
Roy
Spezza
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (380)
56.1% (795)
-12.2%
Power Play
52.8% (106)
56.9% (211)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (38)
56.3% (190)
-1.0%
On even strength, Spezza has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Roy is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (228).
Roy shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Roy
Spezza
Home
51.6% (283)
56.6% (532)
Away
40.4% (245)
56.0% (678)
By Period
Roy
Spezza
P1
47.8%
58.8%
P2
41.1%
59.6%
P3
49.7%
50.4%
OT
41.7%
57.9%
Final 5 min
42.4%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2010 | OT | 03:22 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 13:37 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 11:05 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 00:05 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |