Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Penner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Penner wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 44.6% vs Spezza 55.8% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Penner 64.2%
Defensive zone
Spezza 53.7%
Neutral zone
Penner 57.1%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Penner
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Penner
Spezza
Last 10: Penner 5-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Penner
2
1
Penner
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Penner
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
3
Penner
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (151)
56.1% (795)
-15.0%
Power Play
50.0% (92)
56.9% (211)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (59)
56.3% (190)
-20.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Penner is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Penner shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Penner
Spezza
Home
47.5% (158)
56.6% (532)
Away
37.8% (148)
56.0% (678)
By Period
Penner
Spezza
P1
38.1%
58.8%
P2
36.2%
59.6%
P3
54.7%
50.4%
OT
27.3%
57.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
42.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 02:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |