Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 53.5%). Look for Christensen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Christensen wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Christensen 52.0% vs Spezza 53.3% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 61.7%
Defensive zone
Christensen 50.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 57.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Christensen
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Christensen
Spezza
Last 5: Christensen 3-2 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Christensen
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Christensen
2
1
Christensen
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Christensen
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (255)
53.8% (1,283)
-3.2%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
52.8% (303)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (3)
49.4% (89)
+50.6%
On penalty kill, Christensen has a +50.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Christensen is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Christensen shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Home / Away
Christensen
Spezza
Home
57.8% (173)
56.4% (853)
Away
45.7% (129)
50.5% (847)
By Period
Christensen
Spezza
P1
49.6%
53.4%
P2
54.2%
54.2%
P3
53.7%
53.4%
OT
75.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
52.5%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Christensen
48.0%▼
51.5%
52.6%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2011 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | Erik Christensen |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 2 | 01:38 | Defensive | Erik Christensen |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 1 | 13:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Erik Christensen |