Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Nielsen wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 50.1% vs Spezza 54.4% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nielsen 55.1%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 84.7%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 69.5%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Nielsen
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nielsen
Spezza
Last 5: Nielsen 1-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Nielsen
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nielsen
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Nielsen
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (899)
53.2% (763)
-2.5%
Power Play
54.8% (73)
60.9% (197)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (197)
57.1% (21)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Nielsen is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (427).
Nielsen shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Spezza
Home
51.1% (595)
57.5% (518)
Away
49.1% (574)
51.8% (463)
By Period
Nielsen
Spezza
P1
53.2%
55.4%
P2
48.1%
54.1%
P3
49.3%
55.5%
OT
42.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
59.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2016 | 2 | 14:53 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 3, 2016 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 3, 2016 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 3, 2016 | 3 | 09:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 3, 2016 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |