Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Arnott wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.2% vs Spezza 55.8% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Arnott 72.3%
Defensive zone
Arnott 66.1%
Neutral zone
Arnott 65.4%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Arnott
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Arnott
Spezza
Last 10: Arnott 3-7 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Arnott
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Arnott
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
3
Arnott
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (777)
56.1% (795)
-7.1%
Power Play
58.1% (93)
56.9% (211)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
56.3% (190)
-26.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Arnott is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Arnott shoots right. Spezza is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Arnott
Spezza
Home
51.1% (460)
56.6% (532)
Away
49.3% (434)
56.0% (678)
By Period
Arnott
Spezza
P1
45.3%
58.8%
P2
54.2%
59.6%
P3
49.8%
50.4%
OT
66.7%
57.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2010 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 2 | 03:09 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 1 | 03:17 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 1 | 03:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |