Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 13 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Beagle 56.7% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 18-17 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 86.1%
Defensive zone
Beagle 89.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 50.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Spezza
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
18
(35 meetings)
17
18
Spezza
Beagle
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
7
6
Spezza
Beagle
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
5
6
Spezza
Beagle
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
5
6
Spezza
Beagle
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
57.5% (4,994)
-3.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
60.5% (119)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
54.2% (1,554)
-1.5%
On power play, Beagle has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Beagle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,004).
Home / Away
Spezza
Beagle
Home
56.8% (5,066)
59.1% (3,228)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
54.5% (3,443)
By Period
Spezza
Beagle
P1
55.7%
57.4%
P2
54.4%
57.1%
P3
54.1%
56.2%
OT
51.5%
41.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 07:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:06 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 01:45 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 08:30 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 05:19 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 2 | 15:10 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 1 | 14:29 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 1 | 11:04 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 1 | 10:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 2 | 05:58 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |