Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Veleno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Veleno 47.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 52.0%
Defensive zone
Veleno 70.8%
Neutral zone
Veleno 62.7%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Spezza
Veleno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Spezza
Veleno
Last 7: Spezza 2-5 Veleno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Veleno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
0
2
Spezza
Veleno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
2
Spezza
Veleno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Veleno
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
47.4% (2,311)
+7.0%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
51.0% (98)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
36.4% (88)
+16.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Veleno shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Veleno is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (879).
Home / Away
Spezza
Veleno
Home
56.8% (5,066)
45.3% (1,136)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
48.6% (1,361)
By Period
Spezza
Veleno
P1
55.7%
48.0%
P2
54.4%
47.7%
P3
54.1%
45.9%
OT
51.5%
35.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 12:07 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:11 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 01:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |