Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Mitchell 51.0% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 24-10 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 91.0%
Defensive zone
Spezza 65.7%
Neutral zone
Spezza 79.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
Spezza
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
10
(34 meetings)
24
10
Spezza
Mitchell
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
12
6
Spezza
Mitchell
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
7
2
Spezza
Mitchell
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
2
Spezza
Mitchell
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
51.8% (2,965)
+2.6%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
54.1% (196)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
44.1% (401)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Mitchell is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,264).
Home / Away
Spezza
Mitchell
Home
56.8% (5,066)
54.4% (1,806)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
47.6% (1,756)
By Period
Spezza
Mitchell
P1
55.7%
52.0%
P2
54.4%
49.9%
P3
54.1%
50.9%
OT
51.5%
69.2%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 1 | 09:12 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 08:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 09:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 07:43 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 27, 2015 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |