Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Mitchell 50.8% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 79.2%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 61.5%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 50.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Spezza
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Spezza
Mitchell
Last 9: Spezza 6-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
1
Spezza
Mitchell
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Mitchell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mitchell
1
2
Spezza
Mitchell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (998)
51.2% (666)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.5% (248)
45.5% (22)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
48.9% (47)
+1.1%
On power play, Spezza has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Spezza is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (919).
Spezza shoots right. Mitchell is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Spezza
Mitchell
Home
56.4% (626)
51.7% (360)
Away
51.7% (636)
50.1% (375)
By Period
Spezza
Mitchell
P1
56.9%
50.2%
P2
51.9%
49.4%
P3
53.9%
51.9%
OT
46.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2015 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 14:21 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |