Scouting Report
John Mitchell holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 51.9% vs Mitchell 54.5% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 59.1%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 83.8%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 72.7%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Spezza
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Spezza
Mitchell
Last 8: Spezza 5-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
2
3
Spezza
Mitchell
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Mitchell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (526)
55.7% (485)
-4.4%
Power Play
57.7% (123)
58.3% (12)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
51.2% (41)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Mitchell has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Spezza is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Spezza shoots right. Mitchell is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Home / Away
Spezza
Mitchell
Home
53.7% (374)
61.9% (265)
Away
50.3% (304)
49.1% (273)
By Period
Spezza
Mitchell
P1
50.2%
54.9%
P2
50.2%
56.8%
P3
56.2%
54.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 1 | 09:12 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 08:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |