Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 58.7% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.8% vs Jokinen 52.1% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 62.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 80.7%
Neutral zone
Spezza 74.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Spezza
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Spezza
Jokinen
Last 6: Spezza 4-2 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jokinen
0
2
Spezza
Jokinen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Jokinen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Jokinen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (795)
54.1% (196)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.9% (211)
55.7% (79)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (190)
45.2% (42)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Spezza shoots right. Jokinen is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (99).
Home / Away
Spezza
Jokinen
Home
56.6% (532)
56.8% (169)
Away
56.0% (678)
48.3% (151)
By Period
Spezza
Jokinen
P1
58.8%
52.6%
P2
59.6%
60.6%
P3
50.4%
45.0%
OT
57.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Jokinen
44.0%▼
56.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2011 | 2 | 08:50 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 22, 2011 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Mar 22, 2011 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 17:53 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |