Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 53.5%). Look for Jokinen on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Jokinen 52.6% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 53.8%
Defensive zone
Spezza 50.6%
Neutral zone
Jokinen 53.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Spezza
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Spezza
Jokinen
Last 9: Spezza 4-5 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Jokinen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jokinen
1
3
Spezza
Jokinen
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jokinen
1
2
Spezza
Jokinen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (1,097)
52.1% (267)
+1.8%
Power Play
54.8% (250)
69.2% (26)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (89)
50.0% (6)
+2.8%
On power play, Jokinen has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,020).
Spezza shoots right. Jokinen is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Home / Away
Spezza
Jokinen
Home
55.8% (695)
60.0% (175)
Away
52.2% (741)
44.4% (124)
By Period
Spezza
Jokinen
P1
50.3%
49.4%
P2
54.7%
56.6%
P3
56.0%
54.3%
OT
73.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Jokinen
44.0%▼
56.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2014 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 13, 2014 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Apr 13, 2014 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Apr 13, 2014 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 13, 2014 | 1 | 01:35 | Defensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 05:46 | Neutral | Jussi Jokinen |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 09:11 | Neutral | Jussi Jokinen |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 00:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |