Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Ellis shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Ellis 46.8% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 95.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 78.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 85.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Spezza
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Spezza
Ellis
Last 9: Spezza 7-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
0
Spezza
Ellis
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Ellis
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Ellis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
47.3% (607)
+7.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
28.6% (7)
+28.2%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
42.1% (95)
+10.6%
On power play, Spezza has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Ellis is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Spezza
Ellis
Home
56.8% (5,066)
48.5% (303)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Spezza
Ellis
P1
55.7%
50.0%
P2
54.4%
46.2%
P3
54.1%
41.3%
OT
51.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2015 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 3 | 04:32 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |