Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lombardi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Lombardi 49.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lombardi 53.5%
Defensive zone
Lombardi 70.7%
Neutral zone
Lombardi 61.3%
Result
Matthew Lombardi favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Spezza
Lombardi
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Lombardi
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Lombardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Lombardi
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Lombardi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lombardi
0
2
Spezza
Lombardi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Lombardi
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
50.8% (260)
+3.0%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
47.4% (19)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
38.5% (26)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lombardi shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Spezza shoots right. Lombardi is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
Spezza
Lombardi
Home
56.4% (853)
49.2% (177)
Away
50.5% (847)
49.6% (129)
By Period
Spezza
Lombardi
P1
53.4%
49.5%
P2
54.2%
53.9%
P3
53.4%
45.1%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.7%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Lombardi
46.0%▲
43.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Matthew Lombardi |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 09:47 | Neutral | Matthew Lombardi |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 17, 2012 | 3 | 13:09 | Offensive | Matthew Lombardi |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Matthew Lombardi |