Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 20-14 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 89.5%
Defensive zone
Spezza 66.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 81.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Spezza
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
14
(34 meetings)
20
14
Spezza
Bjugstad
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
9
5
Spezza
Bjugstad
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
5
Spezza
Bjugstad
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
4
Spezza
Bjugstad
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
48.6% (6,634)
+5.8%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
55.2% (829)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
44.3% (614)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Bjugstad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,330).
Home / Away
Spezza
Bjugstad
Home
56.8% (5,066)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Spezza
Bjugstad
P1
55.7%
49.0%
P2
54.4%
49.1%
P3
54.1%
48.4%
OT
51.5%
61.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2018 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 19:08 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 04:39 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 10:30 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 2 | 16:38 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |