Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carter shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Carter 49.8% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 92.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 77.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 80.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 81.8%
81.8%
18.2%
Spezza
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Spezza
Carter
Last 10: Spezza 9-1 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Carter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
0
Spezza
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
50.1% (978)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
60.0% (15)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
46.4% (138)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Carter is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (404).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carter
Home
56.8% (5,066)
49.0% (506)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
50.3% (632)
By Period
Spezza
Carter
P1
55.7%
50.5%
P2
54.4%
48.9%
P3
54.1%
50.0%
OT
51.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Carter
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2015 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 07:52 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |