Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carter shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Carter 49.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 82.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 51.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 67.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Spezza
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Spezza
Carter
Last 5: Spezza 4-1 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Spezza
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
49.7% (390)
+4.1%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
57.1% (7)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
48.5% (33)
+0.9%
On power play, Carter has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Spezza shoots right. Carter is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carter
Home
56.4% (853)
51.5% (171)
Away
50.5% (847)
48.7% (261)
By Period
Spezza
Carter
P1
53.4%
50.7%
P2
54.2%
48.4%
P3
53.4%
50.4%
Final 5 min
52.7%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Carter
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |