Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Spezza wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Kesler 58.0% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 60.5%
Defensive zone
Kesler 88.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 66.6%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Spezza
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Spezza
Kesler
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
0
Spezza
Kesler
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
4
Spezza
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
1
Spezza
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
58.6% (1,138)
-5.4%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
64.5% (186)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
55.0% (351)
+2.1%
On even strength, Kesler has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Spezza is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Spezza shoots right. Kesler is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Spezza
Kesler
Home
57.5% (518)
61.0% (859)
Away
51.8% (463)
55.9% (816)
By Period
Spezza
Kesler
P1
55.4%
59.1%
P2
54.1%
56.5%
P3
55.5%
60.5%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.1%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 11:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 01:26 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 01:21 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 11:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 02:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 16:47 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 05:04 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |