Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Horcoff 51.0% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 83.9%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 56.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 66.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Spezza
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Spezza
Horcoff
Last 6: Spezza 4-2 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Horcoff
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
2
Spezza
Horcoff
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Horcoff
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
51.2% (537)
+2.0%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
66.7% (15)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
47.3% (74)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. Horcoff is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Home / Away
Spezza
Horcoff
Home
57.5% (518)
52.5% (343)
Away
51.8% (463)
49.5% (283)
By Period
Spezza
Horcoff
P1
55.4%
48.2%
P2
54.1%
52.2%
P3
55.5%
52.7%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 01:54 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |