Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Nosek 53.6% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 77.0%
Defensive zone
Nosek 74.3%
Neutral zone
Spezza 50.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Spezza
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Spezza
Nosek
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
2
Spezza
Nosek
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
3
Spezza
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
Spezza
Nosek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
54.9% (2,674)
-0.5%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
44.7% (47)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
47.4% (424)
+5.3%
On power play, Spezza has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Spezza
Nosek
Home
56.8% (5,066)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Spezza
Nosek
P1
55.7%
52.3%
P2
54.4%
54.0%
P3
54.1%
54.6%
OT
51.5%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:54 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:21 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 14:59 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 10:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 18:55 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |