Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Smith 48.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 90.6%
Defensive zone
Spezza 58.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 82.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Spezza
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Spezza
Smith
Last 9: Spezza 6-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
1
Spezza
Smith
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
49.0% (769)
+5.4%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
63.6% (22)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
42.4% (118)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Smith is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Home / Away
Spezza
Smith
Home
56.8% (5,066)
52.4% (490)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
44.0% (420)
By Period
Spezza
Smith
P1
55.7%
46.9%
P2
54.4%
51.2%
P3
54.1%
47.7%
OT
51.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2014 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 06:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 2 | 09:42 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 16:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 05:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |