Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Smith 46.1% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 88.8%
Defensive zone
Spezza 63.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 84.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Spezza
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Spezza
Smith
Last 8: Spezza 6-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (1,097)
44.7% (244)
+9.2%
Power Play
54.8% (250)
33.3% (6)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (89)
50.0% (8)
+2.8%
On power play, Spezza has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,020).
Spezza shoots right. Smith is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Spezza
Smith
Home
55.8% (695)
51.3% (158)
Away
52.2% (741)
34.0% (100)
By Period
Spezza
Smith
P1
50.3%
37.2%
P2
54.7%
53.9%
P3
56.0%
40.8%
OT
73.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 06:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 2 | 09:42 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 16:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 05:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |