Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.1% vs Sobotka 53.3% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 70.7%
Defensive zone
Sobotka 52.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 57.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Spezza
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Spezza
Sobotka
Last 7: Spezza 4-3 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Sobotka
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Sobotka
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (654)
56.0% (300)
+0.4%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
52.0% (25)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
37.0% (27)
+13.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Spezza shoots right. Sobotka is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Home / Away
Spezza
Sobotka
Home
61.4% (352)
60.3% (156)
Away
50.9% (395)
49.5% (196)
By Period
Spezza
Sobotka
P1
60.6%
56.5%
P2
54.8%
55.6%
P3
52.5%
49.5%
OT
0.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.5%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.8%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2018 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Feb 16, 2018 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 16, 2018 | 1 | 07:52 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 16, 2018 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 2 | 15:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |