Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Weatherby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Weatherby 50.6% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 73.2%
Defensive zone
Spezza 52.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 62.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Spezza
Weatherby
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Spezza
Weatherby
Last 7: Spezza 6-1 Weatherby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Weatherby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Weatherby
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Weatherby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Weatherby
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
50.8% (325)
+2.9%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
44.4% (9)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
57.1% (7)
-18.9%
On penalty kill, Weatherby has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Weatherby shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Weatherby is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (127).
Home / Away
Spezza
Weatherby
Home
55.0% (282)
49.1% (171)
Away
50.8% (295)
52.4% (170)
By Period
Spezza
Weatherby
P1
53.1%
44.9%
P2
53.2%
53.0%
P3
52.3%
54.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Weatherby
50.0%▬
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Jasper Weatherby |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 05:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 02:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |