Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Beagle wins 57.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.8% vs Duchene 61.5% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.0%
Defensive zone
Beagle 63.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Beagle
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Beagle
Duchene
Last 7: Beagle 4-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Beagle
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
3
1
Beagle
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (799)
62.2% (802)
-5.4%
Power Play
64.7% (17)
67.3% (153)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
54.6% (291)
59.4% (143)
-4.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Beagle is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Beagle shoots right. Duchene is 65.4% vs right-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Beagle
Duchene
Home
57.6% (552)
66.5% (555)
Away
55.1% (555)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Beagle
Duchene
P1
56.9%
63.2%
P2
59.0%
59.6%
P3
54.0%
65.0%
OT
40.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 19:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 10:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 2 | 12:27 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |