Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beagle wins 56.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Johnson 51.5% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beagle 75.3%
Defensive zone
Beagle 78.9%
Neutral zone
Beagle 77.0%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Beagle
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Beagle
Johnson
Last 5: Beagle 4-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
1
Beagle
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
53.5% (434)
+4.0%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
80.0% (5)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
40.7% (81)
+13.5%
On power play, Johnson has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Beagle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,004).
Beagle shoots right. Johnson is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Beagle
Johnson
Home
59.1% (3,228)
50.8% (252)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
52.6% (268)
By Period
Beagle
Johnson
P1
57.4%
52.1%
P2
57.1%
47.4%
P3
56.2%
56.4%
OT
41.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:42 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 08:49 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 13:54 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |