Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beagle wins 56.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Carrick 52.1% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 60.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 71.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 57.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Beagle
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Beagle
Carrick
Last 6: Beagle 1-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Beagle
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Beagle
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Beagle
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
52.1% (2,513)
+5.4%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
61.3% (75)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
50.7% (430)
+3.5%
On even strength, Beagle has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Beagle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,004).
Beagle shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Beagle
Carrick
Home
59.1% (3,228)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Beagle
Carrick
P1
57.4%
51.8%
P2
57.1%
52.2%
P3
56.2%
52.4%
Final 5 min
56.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 7, 2015 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |