Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beagle wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 56.1%
Defensive zone
Beagle 92.4%
Neutral zone
Beagle 73.0%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
Beagle
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Beagle
Lorentz
Last 5: Beagle 3-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Beagle
Lorentz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
1
Beagle
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
48.9% (1,118)
+8.6%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
50.0% (26)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
41.9% (86)
+12.3%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Beagle shoots right. Lorentz is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (450).
Home / Away
Beagle
Lorentz
Home
59.1% (3,228)
50.8% (606)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Beagle
Lorentz
P1
57.4%
53.0%
P2
57.1%
46.8%
P3
56.2%
46.1%
OT
41.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |