Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 17 meetings). Beagle wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Hertl 54.1% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 24-17 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.8%
Defensive zone
Beagle 91.7%
Neutral zone
Beagle 62.3%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Beagle
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
17
(41 meetings)
24
17
Beagle
Hertl
Last 10: Beagle 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
12
Beagle
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
16
1
Beagle
Hertl
17 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Beagle
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
53.6% (8,077)
+3.9%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
59.7% (1,916)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
46.0% (793)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Beagle shoots right. Hertl is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,031).
Home / Away
Beagle
Hertl
Home
59.1% (3,228)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Beagle
Hertl
P1
57.4%
53.6%
P2
57.1%
53.9%
P3
56.2%
55.1%
OT
41.3%
46.8%
Final 5 min
56.3%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 16:33 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 12:41 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:02 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 01:07 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |