Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Smithson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Smithson 56.5% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 68.4%
Defensive zone
Smithson 83.6%
Neutral zone
Smithson 63.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Carter
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Carter
Smithson
Last 10: Carter 6-4 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
9
1
Carter
Smithson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
2
Carter
Smithson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
Smithson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
58.4% (1,842)
-5.1%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
55.6% (45)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
50.6% (443)
-4.3%
On even strength, Smithson has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Smithson is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (664).
Home / Away
Carter
Smithson
Home
54.7% (5,752)
58.4% (1,195)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
55.0% (1,150)
By Period
Carter
Smithson
P1
53.6%
55.9%
P2
52.8%
55.3%
P3
53.1%
59.0%
OT
56.5%
54.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3 | 01:23 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3 | 01:19 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 1 | 15:30 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 3 | 17:22 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 1 | 07:42 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |