Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 55.6%). Look for Winchester on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 59.3% vs right-shot opponents — Winchester shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 54.0% vs Winchester 54.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 60.2%
Defensive zone
Winchester 50.8%
Neutral zone
Carter 55.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Carter
Winchester
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carter
Winchester
Last 6: Carter 4-2 Winchester
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
Winchester
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Winchester
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Winchester
1
2
Carter
Winchester
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Winchester
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (445)
56.1% (469)
+0.1%
Power Play
54.4% (114)
41.7% (12)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (40)
57.4% (61)
-19.9%
On penalty kill, Winchester has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Winchester shoots right. Carter is 59.3% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Carter shoots right. Winchester is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Carter
Winchester
Home
55.0% (291)
56.9% (299)
Away
54.5% (314)
54.1% (246)
By Period
Carter
Winchester
P1
57.2%
49.7%
P2
46.6%
59.8%
P3
58.0%
56.4%
OT
77.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.7%
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 2 | 15:56 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |