Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Larsson 49.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 93.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 77.5%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Carter
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
7
(19 meetings)
12
7
Carter
Larsson
Last 10: Carter 5-5 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
6
1
Carter
Larsson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
5
Carter
Larsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
5
1
Carter
Larsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
50.5% (4,382)
+2.8%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
47.7% (153)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
43.8% (714)
+2.5%
On power play, Carter has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Home / Away
Carter
Larsson
Home
54.7% (5,752)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Carter
Larsson
P1
53.6%
51.6%
P2
52.8%
49.7%
P3
53.1%
47.2%
OT
56.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2021 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 06:25 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 19:16 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 19:02 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 04:03 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 19:06 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 09:52 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 08:36 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |