Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 22-17 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 87.6%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 81.6%
Neutral zone
Carter 52.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Carter
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
22
(39 meetings)
17
22
Carter
Gaustad
Last 10: Carter 5-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
12
3
Carter
Gaustad
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
14
Carter
Gaustad
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
5
Carter
Gaustad
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
58.2% (4,334)
-4.9%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
65.4% (188)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
54.8% (1,290)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Carter
Gaustad
Home
54.7% (5,752)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Carter
Gaustad
P1
53.6%
58.2%
P2
52.8%
56.4%
P3
53.1%
58.3%
OT
56.5%
66.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2016 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 2 | 02:16 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 3 | 16:42 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 14:53 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |