Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.9% vs 52.1%). Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.8% vs Smith 51.8% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 58.6%
Defensive zone
Carter 54.0%
Neutral zone
Carter 57.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Carter
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carter
Smith
Last 6: Carter 4-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
1
Carter
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carter
Smith
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,137)
53.5% (430)
-0.1%
Power Play
48.7% (154)
47.7% (65)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (124)
49.1% (114)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Smith has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (964).
Carter shoots right. Smith is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Home / Away
Carter
Smith
Home
54.8% (753)
54.0% (298)
Away
48.6% (662)
50.2% (311)
By Period
Carter
Smith
P1
52.8%
55.4%
P2
53.0%
45.9%
P3
49.9%
54.6%
OT
53.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.9%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.9%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2016 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 11:59 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2016 | 1 | 10:19 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2016 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Nov 11, 2016 | 1 | 00:45 | Neutral | Zack Smith |