Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Skinner wins 36.7% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 44.7% vs Kesler 55.9% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 98.1%
Defensive zone
Kesler 73.6%
Neutral zone
Skinner 81.5%
Result
Jeff Skinner favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Skinner
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Skinner
Kesler
Last 8: Skinner 2-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
2
1
Skinner
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
4
Skinner
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Skinner
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (1,317)
56.4% (8,095)
-14.1%
Power Play
52.0% (404)
60.7% (1,437)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
50.5% (1,908)
-17.2%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Skinner is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Skinner shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Skinner
Kesler
Home
48.2% (949)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
39.9% (791)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Skinner
Kesler
P1
41.6%
56.5%
P2
46.0%
55.9%
P3
46.4%
56.1%
OT
23.5%
46.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
44.4%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 17, 2010 | 2 | 01:27 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |