Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Smithson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Smithson 55.7% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 81.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 78.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 79.6%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Kelly
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Kelly
Smithson
Last 5: Kelly 0-5 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
1
Kelly
Smithson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
3
Kelly
Smithson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
1
Kelly
Smithson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
59.4% (175)
-9.4%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
66.7% (3)
-26.7%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
52.6% (38)
-7.7%
On power play, Smithson has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Kelly is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Kelly shoots left. Smithson is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (134).
Home / Away
Kelly
Smithson
Home
51.4% (350)
63.2% (106)
Away
45.0% (229)
53.6% (110)
By Period
Kelly
Smithson
P1
46.9%
69.6%
P2
53.6%
48.3%
P3
46.8%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
64.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2013 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 9, 2013 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |