Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Skinner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Skinner wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — Smithson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 45.2% vs Smithson 55.3% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 62.7%
Defensive zone
Smithson 84.9%
Neutral zone
Smithson 69.3%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Skinner
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Skinner
Smithson
Last 5: Skinner 3-2 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
1
0
Skinner
Smithson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
1
Skinner
Smithson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Skinner
2
1
Skinner
Smithson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (149)
57.9% (518)
-16.3%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
40.0% (10)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
50.0% (108)
-10.0%
On power play, Skinner has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Skinner is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (46).
Skinner shoots left. Smithson is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Skinner
Smithson
Home
46.8% (77)
57.8% (306)
Away
37.8% (82)
54.6% (339)
By Period
Skinner
Smithson
P1
45.6%
51.8%
P2
40.4%
54.8%
P3
40.4%
62.0%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
42.1%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2012 | OT | 02:51 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 25, 2012 | OT | 00:54 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 07:23 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 18:27 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |