Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smithson wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Ellis shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.5% vs Ellis 46.8% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smithson 59.6%
Defensive zone
Smithson 85.0%
Neutral zone
Smithson 73.1%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Smithson
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Smithson
Ellis
Last 5: Smithson 3-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
2
Smithson
Ellis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
3
0
Smithson
Ellis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (1,842)
47.3% (607)
+11.1%
Power Play
55.6% (45)
28.6% (7)
+27.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (443)
42.1% (95)
+8.5%
On power play, Smithson has a +27.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Smithson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,681).
Smithson shoots right. Ellis is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Smithson
Ellis
Home
58.4% (1,195)
48.5% (303)
Away
55.0% (1,150)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Smithson
Ellis
P1
55.9%
50.0%
P2
55.3%
46.2%
P3
59.0%
41.3%
OT
54.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2013 | OT | 02:04 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 13:57 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 01:24 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |